Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

察尔汗盐湖西北部典型采区地下卤水赋存状态的地面核磁探测与数值模拟研究          下载免费PDF全文

张光武  易磊  高泽永  韩凤清  陈富洪  马喆  卢晓航  刘小宝  韩光  袁文虎  刘溪溪 《盐湖研究》2020,28(1)

察尔汗盐湖地下晶间卤水蕴藏了宝贵的盐湖矿产资源,如何确定地下卤水的赋存规律以制定科学合理的卤水开采和补给方案,正成为盐湖资源大规模可持续利用亟需解决的重要问题。本文以察尔汗盐湖西北部的典型采卤区作为研究区域,1)利用新型的地面核磁共振找水仪,通过在研究区布设两条十字交叉的测线,探测并反演解译测区地下60米深度内的卤水静态赋存形式,2)结合OpenGeoSys(OGS)多物理场耦合地下水数值模拟软件,对测区地下卤水的动态运移形式进行数值模拟计算。地面核磁探测结果表明研究区含水量整体偏低,最大含水量约0.8%,平均含水量约0.4%。测点结果给出的含水层位分界面与邻近钻孔的地层层位分界面的一致性较高,浅部的层位误差在10%以下,达到了0.5米的精度。考虑到测区南北两边均有采卤渠正在汲取地下卤水,且在测区中心存在两条废弃的采卤渠,OGS地下水数值模拟研究结果表明采卤渠造成测区浅部卤水较大空缺,与研究区浅部含水量总体偏低的探测特征一致。研究结果表明地面核磁共振技术能准确探测卤水当前的赋存状态,地下水运移模拟技术可以深入认识采补活动引起卤水赋存状态的变化规律。探测和模拟结合的联合研究是确定卤水赋存规律的重要手段,研究成果可为盐湖资源合理开采高效利用提供基础资料和相关科学支撑。  相似文献   

中印对尼泊尔地缘影响力的演变分析     

张良兵  骆华松  洪菊花  陆好健 《世界地理研究》2020,29(1):43-51

尼泊尔在地理位置上处于中国和印度包围之中，由于历史原因，其经济、政治、军事等长期受到制约。随着中国“一带一路”倡议的推进和中印近年来领土和国际政治问题的冲突与分歧，尼泊尔正在成为中印新的角力场。本文首先通过构建地缘影响力模型进行演变格局分析与趋势预测，并加入世界环境和区域环境两方面影响因素，运用定性与定量分析结合的方法，预测中、尼、印三国未来战略行动方向。综合以上分析发现：1）2000年—2016年，中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力较于印度对于尼泊尔地缘影响力上升趋势明显，预计在2022年至2023年中、印对尼泊尔地缘影响力达到平衡。2）硬实力是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力上升的关键因素；软实力和交流互动力是未来中国增强在尼泊尔地缘影响力的发展因素；地理环境是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力发展的制约因素。3）未来中国将继续实施积极性合作战略，印度形成对中国遏制性防范战略，尼泊尔维持被动性中印平衡战略。  相似文献   

A modified numerical model for moisture-salt transport in unsaturated sandy soil under evaporation     

Wei Wen  YuanMing Lai  ZheMin You 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(3):125-133

Soil salinization, caused by salt migration and accumulation underneath the soil surface, will corrode structures. To analyze the moisture-salt migration and salt precipitation in soil under evaporation conditions, a mathematical model consisting of a series of theoretical equations is briefly presented. The filling effect of precipitated salts on tortuosity factor and evaporation rate are taken into account in relevant equations. Besides, a transition equation to link the solute transport equation before and after salt precipitation is proposed. Meanwhile, a new relative humidity equation deduced from Pitzer ions model is used to modify the vapor transport flux equation. The results show that the calculated values are in good agreement with the published experimental data, especially for the simulation of volume water content and evaporation rate of Toyoura sand, which confirm the reliability and applicability of the proposed model.  相似文献   

平衡剖面的制作流程及其地质意义   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

王运所  刘亚洲  张孝义  张剑峰  尹哲 《地球科学与环境学报》2003,25(1):28-32

平衡剖面技术是地质思维和计算机技术的结晶,使对断层构造的研究提高到定量阶段,其依据是在垂直构造走向的剖面上,地层长度和面积(2D)或体积(3D)是均衡的。在此原理基础上利用数学手段对盆地的构造发育史进行正演和反演模拟,直观地再现地下构造的原始几何形态,迅速提供地震剖面的构造解释方案,并对解释结果进行检验(不平衡的剖面其解释一般有问题),为深刻认识构造发育史、分析油气运移及聚集规律提供依据,提高了工作效率。其结果也为盆地模拟、油藏模拟、定量计算构造伸缩量等地质研究打下了坚实的基础[1]。  相似文献   

Isotope hydrological study of mean transit time in the granitic Strengbach catchment (Vosges massif,France): application of the FlowPC model with modified input function     

D. Viville  B. Ladouche  T. Bariac 《水文研究》2006,20(8):1737-1751

Measurements of ¹⁸O concentrations in precipitation, soil solution, spring and runoff are used to determine water transit time in the small granitic Strengbach catchment (0·8 km²; 883–1146 m above sea level) located in the Vosges Mountains of northeastern France. Water transit times were calculated by applying the exponential, exponential piston and dispersion models of the FlowPC program to isotopic input (rainfall) and output (spring and stream water) data sets during the period 1989–95. The input function of the model was modified compared with the former version of the model and estimated by a deterministic approach based on a simplified hydrological balance. The fit between observed and calculated output data showed marked improvements compared with results obtained using the initial version of the model. An exponential piston version of the model applied to spring water indicates a 38·5 month mean transit time, which suggests that the volume in the aquifer, expressed in water depth, is 2·4 m. A considerable thickness (>45 m) of fractured bedrock may be involved for such a volume of water to be stored in the aquifer. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

NaCl胁迫下杂交稻农艺性状配合力及遗传力分析     

方良俊 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(3):91-94

采用4×4不完全双列杂交设计,在NaCl胁迫下对杂交水稻主要农艺性状进行了配合力和遗传力分析.结果表明,在调查的10个性状中有4个性状受NaCl胁迫影响差异较大,母本的千粒重及父本的粒厚一般配力差异显著,杂交组合的株高、粒厚、结实率及千粒重特殊配合力差异极显著,其中杂交组合N28S×中花14具有较高的配合力,受NaCl胁迫影响较低。株高及千粒重的广义遗传力和狭义遗传力均较高,可作为杂交水稻耐盐性的选育依据。  相似文献   

Sources and sinks of sea salt in a newfoundland blanket bog     

Jonathan S. Price 《水文研究》1994,8(2):167-177

Over an oceanic peatland, the concentration of Na in fog averaged 38.1 mgl^?1 compared with 1.8 mgl^?1 in rain, resulting in a significant flux of mineral elements to the surface. Between 16 May and 20 June 1990 the average mass flux of Na to the bog surface by fog, rain, and dry deposition was 21.9, 10.4 and 7.0 mg m^?2 d^?1. There was little long-term storage of Na within the peatland system, where Na losses measured in stream runoff averaged 34.8 mg m² d^?1, and deep groundwater losses 4 mg m^?2 d^?1. Calcium and Mg were preferentially retained in the organic soil, whereas K was relatively mobile. Potassium tended to become concentrated in the unsaturated zone. Stream runoff had a consistently higher pH than groundwater, corresponding to higher Ca and Mg concentrations, which may have been from mineral sources in the headwater ponds. Otherwise, the stream water chemistry was closely related to groundwater in the upper layers of the peat deposit.  相似文献   

Observations on the ecological importance of salt marshes in the Cumberland Basin,a macrotidal estuary in the Bay of Fundy     

Donald C. Gordon  Peter J. Cranford  Con Desplanque 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,20(2):205-227

The Cumberland Basin, a 118 km² estuary at the head of the Bay of Fundy which has an average tidal range of about 11m, contains large tracts of salt marsh (15% of the area below highest high water). Low marsh (below about 0·9 m above mean high water) is composed almost exclusively of Spartina alterniflora while the vegetation on high marsh is more diverse but dominated by Spartina patens. Because of its higher elevation, high marsh is flooded infrequently for short periods by only extreme high tides. Low marsh is inundated much more frequently by water as much as 4m deep for periods as long as 4 h per tide. Temporal variability in the occurrence of extreme tides influences the flooding frequency of high marsh for any given month and year. Using a modification of Smalley's method, the mean annual net aerial primary production (NAPP) of low and high marsh is estimated to be 272 and 172 g C m^?2, respectively. Vegetation turnover times average 1·0 and 2·0 y for low and high marsh, respectively. Because of abundant tidal energy, much of the low marsh production appears to be exported and distributed widely about the estuary. Since high levels of turbidity suppress phytoplankton production, salt marshes produce approximately half of the carbon fixed photosynthetically in the Cumberland Basin. It is concluded that salt marshes play a major ecological role in the Cumberland Basin.  相似文献   

Arsenic incorporation in a salt marsh ecosystem     

James G. Sanders  Richard W. Osman 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,20(4):387-392

Replicate portions of a Delaware salt marsh were enclosed in cylindrical microcosms and exposed to elevated levels of inorganic arsenic (arsenate). All biotic and abiotic components in dosed cylinders rapidly incorporated arsenic. Spartina blades showed the greatest arsenic enrichment, with dosed plants incorporating arsenic concentrations an order of magnitude higher than controls. Spartina detritus and sediments also exhibited greatly elevated arsenic concentrations. Virtually all of the arsenic was incorporated into plant tissue or strongly sorbed to cell surfaces. Thus, elevated arsenic concentrations in estuarine waters will be reflected in living and non-living components of a salt marsh ecosystem, implying that increased arsenic will be available to organisms within the marsh ecosystem.  相似文献